Markets -- Seeking Alpha
U.S. Indices: Dow +0.4% to 35,820. S&P 500 +1.3% to 4,605. Nasdaq +2.7% to 15,498. Russell 2000 +0.2% to 2,297. CBOE Volatility Index +5.4% to 16.26.
S&P 500 Sectors: Consumer Staples +0.1%. Utilities -0.5%. Financials -0.9%. Telecom +2.%. Healthcare +1.6%. Industrials -0.3%. Information Technology +2.%. Materials +0.3%. Energy -0.8%. Consumer Discretionary +4.%.
World Indices: London +0.5% to 7,238. France +1.4% to 6,830. Germany +0.9% to 15,689. Japan +0.3% to 28,893. China -1.% to 3,547. Hong Kong -2.9% to 25,377. India -2.5% to 59,307.
Commodities and Bonds: Crude Oil WTI -0.6% to $83.25/bbl. Gold -0.6% to $1,784.9/oz. Natural Gas +5.3% to 5.559. Ten-Year Treasury Yield +0.2% to 130.7.
Forex and Cryptos: EUR/USD -0.76%. USD/JPY +0.48%. GBP/USD -0.53%. Bitcoin +0.8%. Litecoin -2.1%. Ethereum +4.3%. Ripple -1.1%.
Indicators:
Inside the stock market
Europe and US are rebounding, Asia is lagging behind, with China getting red.
Correction in financials and energy, small rotation towards tech and consumer discretionary.
Yield Curve
US 10-02 is steading, while DE10-02 is slowly rising. The next move depends on this weeks Fed announcement.
China and Japan are both flattening on the short end of the curve.
TIPS are getting sold off.
Credit
Latin American Corporate Credit is getting boosted, same as long-term US investment grade. BofA EM Corp Plus Index Option Adjusted Spread is retracing.
BofA Euro High Yield Index Effective Yield at new highs since start of the year.
Precious metals are rebounding.
Baltic Dry Index is coming down significantly
Economics & Major News -- Trading Economics
German Consumer Confidence came at 0.9 vs. -0.5 expected.
German Inflation Rate YoY Prel. came at 4.5% vs. 4.4% expected and 4.1% previous.
US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv. Q3 came at 2% vs. 2.7% expected.
EU Inflation Rate YoY Flash came at 4.1% vs. 3.7% expected.
US and China came in close to expected at ~50 for China and 60.8 (ISM) for US
AU RBA left Interest rate unchanged, as well as JP BoJ
Coronavirus
Pfizer gives 3rd quarter results.
Nov 2 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly (LLY.N)has retracted a request for European Union approval of its antibody-based treatment for COVID-19, citing a lack of demand from EU member states as the bloc focuses on other suppliers. -- Reuters
Germany and UK Corona Death Rates are rising again. But German intensive care beds are still at low levels used (for corona) -- Tagesschau
China tells citizens to stockpile food as Covid controls are tightened -- FT
More News
Earnings by Energy companies seem to be very good. BP seems to be making a lot of money from high commodity prices -- FT
Hertz and Tesla seem to have some kind of agreement regarding 100.000 cars. However, this doesn't seem to be completely fixed yet -- FT
Facebook will be a part of Meta, similar to Google in Alphabet -- Seeking Alpha
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda confirms with government ministers that he will continue with monetary easing to achieve its 2% inflation target, a move that will likely temper market speculation of an early stimulus exit -- Bloomberg
AMID THE AFRICAN LOSSES, OPEC ONLY MADE HALF OF THE PLANNED SUPPLY HIKE. - SOURCE. -- Financial Juice
China's CDS is elevated as the economy is weakened by power and property. Yet, the Yuan is strengthening because the PBOC is not sufficiently easing. CDS is a good barometer of China's macro risk. Hence the Yuan may reset higher in the near-term -- Twitter: Macromadness2
Autos and Housing lead economies into and out of recession. -- Twitter: Danielle DiMartino Booth
U.S CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: 4268K VS -431K PREVIOUS; EST 2000K U.S CUSHING CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -3899K VS -2320K PREVIOUS U.S GASOLINE INVENTORIES ACTUAL: -1993K VS -5368K PREVIOUS; EST -2235K U.S DISTILLATE INVENTORY ACTUAL: -432K VS -3913K PREVIOUS; EST -2250K -- First Squawk
Next Week
Fed Interest Rate Decision on [[November 3rd, 2021]]
BOE Interest Rate Decision on [[November 4th, 2021]]
US Non Farm Payrolls on [[November 5th, 2021]]
China Imports and Exports on [[November 7th, 2021]]
Interesting Earnings: BP, Pfizer, Marriott, Uber, AirBnB, Dropbox, Draftkings
Regime
Currently it looks like earnings come in strong but at the same time the Fed will not hike as fast. But this can change. Inflation seems to set at an around 4-5% level YoY for both, the EU and the US. The main event is going to be the Fed Wednesday, to see how they will start tapering and especially when they will start raising rates. Corona could become an emerging problem again. The efficiacy of booster shots will be important to watch.
Scenario in one year
Chip shortage are likely to be unresolved, while the supply chain gets to normal levels again. It is already starting to ease a little bit. Corona should be managed just like the flu by then. America and China could be in more conflict, now also looking where Europe positions itself for the upcoming decade. Commodity inventories are probably still going to be depleted, and not enough supply be in the market.
Trading
Precious metals are stopping their fall and have inflation and supply chains as tail winds.